Sunscreen vs. Skin Cancer: What’s Going On?

You will often hear this argument: people use more sunscreen today, yet skin cancer rates keep going up. Some take that as proof that sunscreen does not work and conclude we do not need it.

That conclusion can be deadly.

To understand what is actually happening, we need to zoom out and look at the data and the behaviors that come with sunscreen use.

Are People Using More Sunscreen?

In many places, yes. In the U.S., reported sunscreen use has risen from about 25% to 33% since 2000. Studies in other countries show similar trends, including research on beachgoers in Denmark.

Are Skin Cancer Rates Rising?

Yes, and not just in one country. Melanoma diagnoses have been increasing in the U.S., the UK, Australia, and elsewhere.

At first glance, the combination of these two trends is confusing. If sunscreen blocks harmful UV radiation, you would expect skin cancer rates to fall as sunscreen use rises.

This is why skeptics claim sunscreen is ineffective.

But that explanation ignores several major factors.

Factor 1: Aging Populations

Populations are getting older. People are living longer and having fewer children, which increases the proportion of adults over 65. This matters because skin cancer becomes more common with age.

For example, melanoma diagnoses often peak around the 70s in many datasets. So even if sunscreen were working, an older population would naturally produce more cases.

However, aging alone does not explain the full increase.

Researchers have attempted to adjust for the changing age distribution and still found that global skin cancer incidence has risen steadily from 1990 to 2021, with an annual increase close to 2% even after accounting for population aging.

More alarming is that melanoma rates have also risen among younger people. In the U.S., melanoma incidence in young men in 2009 was several times higher than in 1970, and the increase in young women was even more dramatic.

So something else is going on.

Factor 2: More UV Exposure

The most direct driver of skin cancer is UV exposure. The more UV radiation skin receives over time, the higher the risk.

That brings us back to sunscreen. If people are using more sunscreen, why is UV exposure still rising?

Because sunscreen use often changes behavior.

There are three myths that increase UV exposure even in people who use sunscreen.

Myth 1: Tanning Beds Are a Safe Way to Tan

They are not.

Large analyses have linked tanning bed use to higher melanoma risk. One major review found melanoma risk was meaningfully higher in people who had ever used a tanning bed.

Tanning beds are especially concerning because of UVA exposure, which can be far higher than what most people would receive from typical sunlight.

This is why tanning beds have been classified as a Group 1 carcinogen by the International Agency for Research on Cancer, in the same category as substances like tobacco and asbestos.

Myth 2: Sunscreen Lets You Tan Safely

Many people believe sunscreen blocks harmful rays and allows only “good rays” through, letting them tan without damage.

That is not how it works.

A tan is a skin response to UV exposure, primarily UVA and UVB. Those same wavelengths damage DNA. When you tan, it means you have received enough UV exposure to trigger damage.

A tan is not a sign of health. It is a sign of injury.

Myth 3: Being in the Sun Is Safe as Long as You Wear Sunscreen

Sunscreen does not provide complete protection.

Even high-SPF sunscreen does not block 100% of UV radiation, and many products provide weaker UVA protection than people assume. This matters because UVA contributes to skin aging and plays a role in skin cancer risk.

The bigger problem is behavioral. If someone applies sunscreen and then stays in direct sun much longer than they otherwise would, their total UV exposure can still be high. In some cases, it can be higher than if they had avoided sun altogether.

This is one reason sunscreen can appear less effective in population studies. Sunscreen is often used as permission to increase sun exposure.

So Does Sunscreen Help or Not?

Yes, it helps, as long as it is used correctly and not treated as a license to bake in the sun.

One of the strongest real-world studies was conducted in Australia. It began in 1992 with about 1,600 participants assigned either to daily sunscreen use or to use sunscreen as they normally would. After several years, the trial ended, but participants were followed for much longer.

Those in the daily sunscreen group had about half the risk of developing melanoma compared to the other group.

Some meta-analyses have found mixed or non-significant results for sunscreen and skin cancer prevention, but this area is difficult to study. You cannot ethically run long-term randomized trials where one group is deliberately exposed to UV without protection. Population studies also struggle with confounding factors like tanning behavior, outdoor lifestyle, and differences in sunscreen application quality.

Even with those limitations, we know two things with high confidence:

• UV radiation drives skin cancer risk in a dose-dependent way.

• Sunscreen reduces UV exposure when applied properly.

Sunscreen’s Strongest Visible Proof: Photoaging

There is another way to judge sunscreen effectiveness that is easier to observe than cancer outcomes: skin aging from sun exposure, often called photoaging.

Sun damage that contributes to skin cancer also contributes to wrinkles, pigment changes, collagen breakdown, and loss of elasticity. Those changes are easier to measure over shorter time periods.

A landmark trial found that people who used sunscreen daily showed no detectable new skin aging over several years, while others did. Multiple research reviews support sunscreen’s ability to reduce photoaging.

If sunscreen reduces photoaging, it is reducing UV damage. And if it reduces UV damage, it reduces a major driver of skin cancer risk.

The Best Way to Use Sunscreen Safely

Sunscreen works best as one tool in a broader sun-safety strategy, not the entire plan.

A safer approach includes:

• avoiding direct midday sun when UV is strongest

• wearing protective clothing, hats, and sunglasses

• using sunscreen as a backup layer for exposed areas

• avoiding tanning beds entirely

• not using sunscreen as a way to justify longer sun exposure

Final Takeaway

Sunscreen use is rising, but so is UV exposure due to cultural and behavioral factors, including tanning beds, longer time in the sun, and the false belief that sunscreen makes tanning safe.

Sunscreen does help reduce UV damage and lowers melanoma risk when used correctly. The key is to stop treating sunscreen as full protection and start using it as part of a complete sun-safety strategy.

If you do that, sunscreen becomes what it is meant to be: a useful tool that helps reduce risk, not a false shield that encourages more exposure.

Research sources:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK587264/
https://medicaljournalssweden.se/actadv/article/view/5003
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10741796/
https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/health-professional/cancer-statistics/statistics-by-cancer-type/melanoma-skin-cancer/incidence
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-025-90485-3
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11931655/
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